During a discussion of who should win what trophy this year, someone mentioned humorously that Sean Avery should take home the Lady Byng. Obviously, nobody took it seriously, but I thought I would try and compile a list of reasons as to why Avery would be a good candidate to at least be nominated for the award. So here I go...
OK I can't think of anything. This week, the topic of discussion will be my early predictions as to who will make the playoffs and which teams will be on the short end of the stick in April. For the teams that have pretty much secured a playoff spot already, I will try and predict which seed they will be.
1 (3). Detroit Red Wings (99 points) - After a blowout loss to Columbus, Detroit came roaring back offensively. They went 2-0-1 this past week, dropping in overtime to Calgary. But they're averaging over 4 goals a game since last Saturday. The main question is still goaltending, as Ty Conklin and Chris Osgood continue to swap good and bad starts. Detroit is pretty much thought of as a guarantee to go to the Western Conference finals, and the deciding factor as to whether they make it to the Stanley Cup finals might end up being if they're the first or second seed in the West.
2 (1). Boston Bruins (99 points) - After grabbing sole possession of first place last week, losses to the Rangers and the Blue Jackets allowed the Red Wings to close the 1 point gap. They went 2-2-0, but their 2 wins were to the bottom-feeding Ottawa Senators and New York Islanders. Tim Thomas continues to be strong, however, and they'll go as far as their young offense goes. Washington is starting to slide, and they're even losing at home, which is good news for Boston, but now they have the red hot New Jersey Devils coming right at them. Boston may even end up giving up their first place in the Eastern Conference. If that happens, and they end up facing the Capitals in the semifinals, the Bruins may not contend for the conference championship this year.
3 (4). New Jersey Devils (93 points) - The Devils are 7-1-0 with the injury-free Martin Brodeur, and their future hall-of-famer tied Patrick Roy's all time win record Saturday afternoon. He is pretty much guaranteed to break the record, and has a very good chance at breaking the all time shutout record this season as well. Their top two lines continue to put up points at a ridiculous pace, and with Broduer playing this well, the Devils may end up being top contenders for the Stanley Cup when the regular season ends.
4 (2). San Jose Sharks (98 points) - The slump continues for the Sharks. Two blown 3 goal leads led to an overtime loss and an overtime win, and on Saturday they barely beat the Kings, going 7 rounds into the shootout before finally getting the extra point. Some may point fingers at Brian Boucher for their recent slide, and they may have a point with Nabokov's strong return Saturday. But the coaching staff probably would blame their offense, which hasn't found much success in the past month and a half. If San Jose can't shake off this slump going into the playoffs, they may end up suffering another early exit.
5 (6). Washington Capitals (92 points) - After losing all 3 games last week, the Capitals finally broke out of their slump, with a record of 3-0-1 this week. Ovechkin's goal scoring pace has slowed down, but their offense has been coming from other parts of their lineup, which may be both a blessing and a curse. Theodore has been steady, so if he continues to play and Ovechkin gets hot going into the playoffs, the three way showdown in the Eastern Conference will be a very exciting thing to watch. If not, then the Capitals will end up being a stepping stone for a Devils vs Bruins matchup in the finals.
6 (5). Calgary Flames (86 points) - After acquiring Olli Jokinen, all things seemed right for the Flames. But the Flames dropped 3 out of their 4 games this week, and the win over the Red Wings took an overtime effort. The problem, surprisingly, was in their goaltending. Kiprusoff has given up some soft goals, and the Flames are averaging over 5 goals allowed their last 5 games. Offense is still not a problem, as they are scoring a lot of goals, and Jokinen is racking up his point totals, but something needs to change defensively. If it continues, the Flames may once again be one and done in the playoffs.
7 (8). Philadelphia Flyers (84 points) - In a turn of tables from earlier in the season, it is now the offense that is inconsistant. Biron has carried the team the past 2 weeks, but the scoring only happens every other game. The Flyers are in 4th place, but they may drastically drop in seeding come playoff time if the Rangers, Penguins, and Hurricanes keep getting points. But with the way the regular season matchups have gone, it is difficult to see the Flyers getting out of the second round.
8 (7). Chicago Blackhawks (83 points) - The Blackhawks had a tough week in goaltending, with their biggest loss coming from the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Blackhawks haven't been able to string more than 2 wins in a row since mid-February, but they'll be welcoming back Nikolai Khabibulin, their top goaltender that got them off to a hot start early in the season. If Khabibulin can re-establish himself and keep the Blackhawks in the game, the young team could get ample playoff experience, and may even extend the conference semi-finals to a 6 or 7 game series, although they probably won't get past that.
9 (9). Vancouver Canucks (79 points) - The Canucks have developed a pattern that a lot of sports teams like to build upon: winning at home. Coming off a 4 game home winning streak, the Nucks dropped 2 in a California road trip to the Ducks and Kings. But they ended the week strong, going back home and winning once again. Unfortunately, the last two weeks of March will be spent on the road. If they can't return home with above a .500 winning percentage on their road trip, the Canucks risk dropping below the 8th seed, which they currently are 6 points ahead of. If they do make it in the playoffs, their success will be on their offense. If the top line of the Sedin twins and their second line of Burrows and Sundin can get hot at the same time, the Canucks could be first round spoilers.
10 (15). Columbus Blue Jackets (78 points) - After the shelling of Detroit last Saturday, the Blue Jackets have been unstoppable. They had 3 convincing wins this week against Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago. The Jackets are imposing their will on opponents, playing defensive hockey and capitalizing on special teams and turnovers. Steve Mason is looking more and more like the rookie of the year, and some coaches may even be whispering his name in the Vezina discussion. Although the Blue Jackets don't have the offensive depth to win the conference, their first franchise playoff appearance has a good chance of going past the first round.
11 (13). Pittsburgh Penguins (80 points) - The Penguins keep on racking up points. The Pens have gotten at least 1 point in their last 9 games, in a stretch where they went an impressive 7-0-2. Crosby is back, Guerin is putting up points like he is young again, and Fleury has been keeping the Pens alive in each game. With this effort, the Penguins went from outside the playoff picture to right in the middle of things with a tie for 5th place, and if they continue this pace for the rest of the season, they have a shot at kicking the Flyers out of 4th. The best chance for the Penguins to get out of the semifinals would be if they are matched up with the Capitals, but I just don't see the Penguins being able to top the Bruins or Devils with the way those two teams are playing right now.
12 (14). Montreal Canadiens (80 points) - Carey Price has been resurrected from the dead, but it was only good enough to get them 2 wins in the past 2 weeks. Still, the Canadiens will savor every point they can get in the super tight Eastern Conference race. But they are checking the rear view mirror every second, and they are seeing 5 teams waiting to kick them out of the playoffs before it even starts. If the Canadiens continue playing like this, they probably won't make it in. If they improve their game a bit and squeeze into the first round, they won't go farther than that.
13 (12). Carolina Hurricanes (79 points) - Like the Penguins, the Hurricanes are scrapping up the points. They went 1-1-2 this week, totaling 4 points out of a potential 10. Not bad for a team 1 point away from a long summer, but not enough if they truly believe they can make the playoffs. Their offense has been sensational, but Cam Ward has dropped off from last week's performance, posting a shutout on Monday then allowing 3 or more goals the next 3 games of the week, all losses. Still, with the way the Hurricanes have been playing as of late, I like their chances of making the postseason over the other bubble teams in the East.
14 (11). New York Rangers (78 points) - The Rangers have gone 4-2-0 since Sean Avery's return, a similar pattern to last season when you compare the Rangers with and without Avery's services. Avery is also controlling his emotions on the ice, which is only good news for the franchise if they hope to get into the playoffs. Avery has been producing points, putting up 2 goals and an assist in the last 5 games. If their top line guys of Antropov and Drury can get hot, they have the goaltending to play spoiler this playoffs and can fight their way into the semifinals. If they end up being matched up against the Devils, look for a very interesting playoff series where emotions can get the better of either team.
15 (10). Florida Panthers (78 points) - After a dominating performance in February, the Panthers have fallen off the radar. They are putting together some wins, but this past week had them putting up a 0-1-2 record. They are clinging on for dear life in the 8th seed, when a week ago it looked like they would shoot past 6th place. The Eastern Conference battle is tight, so the Panthers still have a bit of time to get things back together, but at the same time one loss can mean the difference for them. Either way, unless the Panthers can find their explosive offense that carried them to several upsets in February, they are not making it out of the first round.
16 (18). Dallas Stars (74 points) - After Turco became the superstar goaltender everyone knew he was in February, March started and he once again became the Turco of earlier this year. Dallas is plagued with injuries, so the only guy they can turn to is Marty Turco. They have been getting good offensive production from their top lines, but the only way they are staying in the playoff race is if their goaltender can find his game back. Still, Dallas is a playoff tested team, and they have the best chance, if given the opportunity, to be a first round spoiler.
17 (16). Buffalo Sabres (76 points) - Despite picking up Tellqvist, the Sabres continue to rely on Lalime to hold the fort until Miller is back for the playoffs. But at the rate they are going, Miller looks to have an extra 6 months to recover from his injury, as they aren't going to make the playoffs. Offensive inconsistancies tied with poor defensive play has killed their chances, to the point where you never know what line combination you will get from the Sabres night in and night out. Some of their top forwards are being demoted to the third line, which is not what you want from players you have signed big contracts with. They are still only 2 points out of the 8th spot, but they have got to put up a lot more wins than losses in the last month of the regular season if they want to have a shot at the first round.
18 (19). Edmonton Oilers (73 points) - The Oilers are currently tied for 8th place in the West, and they are looking at everyone on their roster to get hot and put them into the playoffs. They are generating points, but they have all come from overtime losses this week, going 0-0-3. The Oilers are probably thankful that the teams surrounding them have also been losing, but they know that this type of performance is not good enough for the playoffs. Dwayne Roloson is a good goaltender, but he is bound to let in a couple of goals a game. Thus, it is on the shoulders of the offense to get him 3 or more goals each night.
19 (17). Nashville Predators (73 points) - Partially because they gathered up a couple of wins this week and partially because everyone else at the bottom of the West seems to be losing, the Predators suddenly find themselves tied for 8th place in the Western Conference standings. However, with the way they've been playing, they certainly don't deserve to be there. The story is the same for the Predators: if their offense can get going, they are going to win games. Unfortunately, they spend most of their time in their defensive zone, which ultimately results in a lot of goals against. There are plenty of distractions off the ice for the franchise as well, so we'll see if the Predators can remain headstrong and somehow hold on to the 8th seed.
20 (20). Minnesota Wild (72 points) - The Wild have been finding their offense lately, and suddenly team with the lowest goals scored in the NHL is becoming a serious offensive threat. However, the problem with the Wild has been that they have always come from behind, and the result has been several losses in overtime instead of wins. Since his contract extension, Niklas Backstrom has been letting in several bad goals a game. That is not how the Wild play hockey, and although they welcome the offense, they would probably rather lose 0-1 in overtime than 3-4. If they continue to allow lots of goals in each game, the Wild will be watching the playoffs from home.
21 (22). St. Louis Blues (70 points) - The Blues put together some wins recently, putting them into the playoff picture. Chris Mason has played well and they are using their top forwards to put up the points to win games. However, they just don't have the roster to outplay the teams ahead of them down the stretch. They have a lot of heart and play with a lot of intensity each night, and that may be enough to push them into the playoffs. But it will be more dependent on the other teams ahead of them losing than the Blues winning.
22 (21). Anaheim Ducks (70 points) - The Ducks had a short week, picking up a win and a loss. Still, they've been losing more than winning, which is bad news for a team that is still within reach of the playoffs. Their special teams have been playing well, as always, and that is always an important part of the formula to win games. Their goaltending has improved from earlier in the season, but their offense is being carried by Niedermayer, Selanne, and Pronger. They need their younger stars to rise up and help carry the load, otherwise the Ducks will not be able to put together enough wins to make the playoffs this year.
23 (23). Los Angeles Kings (68 points) - The Kings are only 5 points out of a playoff spot, which is not a lot with 5 weeks left in the regular season. But the Kings have the toughest schedule out of all the bubble teams, spending most of the season away from home and against teams like Boston, Calgary, Pittsburgh, and several other bubble teams in the West. It may come down to the final game of the season for them, where they get to host the San Jose Sharks. Needless to say, the odds are heavily stacked against the Kings. But they have a young roster with a lot of talent, and their goaltending, unlike previous years, has been sensational. They still have a shot at the playoffs, and it will depend on how well they can perform on the road.
24 (24). Toronto Maple Leafs (69 points) - Topping the list of teams that have no chance of making the playoffs this year are the Toronto Maple Leafs. At this point of the season, their role is to play spoiler and stealing wins from teams trying to claw their way into the postseason, which they have been doing with some degree of success as of late. Still, they lost their top goaltender for the rest of the season, and the point differential compared to their recent play indicates no hope for the Maple Leafs until next year.
25 (25). Ottawa Senators (66 points) - Same old story for the Senators: No goaltending and only one offensive line. Brian Elliot looks to be a promising future, but the question is where Leclaire, who has yet to start a game for the team since being traded to them, will fit into the puzzle. The Senators have actually won quite a few games recently, but the hole is too deep for them to climb out of at this time of the season.
26 (27). Colorado Avalanche (63 points) - Surprise surprise. The Avs won 3 games out of 4 this week and are no longer dead last in the Western Conference. Most of their points are being scored on the power play, and that is a very good start for a team that will probably be rebuilding next year. It is unfortunate that Joe Sakic may retire with a season like this, but maybe he'll come back for a 21st year. Who knows?
27 (29). Atlanta Thrashers (62 points) - The Thrashers find themselves on a 5 game winning streak, and they are absolutely enjoying the role of dream crushers in the Eastern Conference. Assuming Kozlov and Kovalchuk stay with the team next season, their offense is one of the more dangerous ones in the East. If they can find a solid starting goaltender (they are looking at Lehtonen but he has a history of injuries), they may be a low seed next year for the playoffs.
28 (26). Phoenix Coyotes (62 points) - Once again the Coyotes are last in the division and last in the conference. Every year people always say give the Coyotes a couple of more years and they will be a deadly team with a lot of talent. The only one who looks to live up to that is their goaltender. They only have two guys who can score points: Shane Doan and Ed Jovanovski. If they cannot find at least 3 more players to put up points, this franchise isn't going anywhere for the next decade.
29 (28). Tampa Bay Lightning (60 points) - Tampa Bay's performance as of late does not match up with their second to last standing, but that's what happens when you dig yourself a hole early in the season. The question of next year will be goaltending and some holes to fill on defense. Will they try to rebuild with Ramo still developing in net, or will they make some offseason moves and try to build a winning roster to make the playoffs immediatley next year?
30 (30). New York Islanders (54 points) - With every win, Islanders fans are groaning. They're already looking forward to drafting Jonathan Tavares than the next home game. Of course, the Islanders just keep winning games for some reason, and what an ironic twist of fate it will be if they end up a couple points ahead of last place when the season ends.
Some final thoughts: If the playoffs started today, the matchups would be...
Detroit - Edmonton, San Jose - Dallas, Calgary - Columbus, Chicago - Vancouver for the West.
Boston - New York Rangers, New Jersey - Carolina, Washington - Pittsburgh, Philadelphia - Montreal for the East.
those are some very interesting first round matchups, and I can already see 4 teams for potential first round upsets (Pittsburgh, Columbus, Vancouver, Dallas). This roster actually sets up for a very tight playoff race, despite who the top 4 teams clearly are, which makes the battle for the President's Trophy all more interesting to watch.