Sunday, February 22, 2009

NHL Power Rankings

I figured as someone who probably watches more hockey than the average sports buff, I should start doing weekly power rankings like most hockey writers do.  So here's mine.  The ranking is based on their position in the standings in comparison to the entire NHL, and their play in the past week.  I'll also be giving letter grades to each team, this week based on how much potential they have to go deep into the playoffs this year.

1. San Jose Sharks - A.  I can't call myself a Sharks fan unless I rank them #1 in my first ever power ranking, right?  But seriously, they are the best team in the league right now, even if by a very slim margin.  What has helped them maintain the top spot with 89 points (to Boston's 88) was timely losing streaks by the Red Wings and the Bruins around the time the Sharks went on that horrendous road trip.  But they've shaken off their losing ways, going 3-0 this past week in their 3 game homestand.  Despite having a differential of 2 goals in each of those wins (small enough to get opposing goaltenders pulled), they were convincing wins and it looks like the San Jose Sharks are slowly working their way to becoming the powerhouse they were in the first months of the season.  And if they can play the dominant puck control, pace-pushing hockey they have been in the beginning, backed by a 30+ win goalie, they have all the pieces to finally make it to the Stanley Cup finals, and even win it.

2. Boston Bruins - A.  Second place in the NHL with 88 points behind the Sharks.  But the only (real) reason why I didn't rank them #1 is because they've played 2 more games than the Sharks.  So San Jose has quite a good chance of grabbing the #1 overall spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  Their 5-2 loss to San Jose two weeks ago also started a losing slide for them, which they've recently righted (but a 2-0 loss today to the Florida Panthers raised an eyebrow of mine).  But this team is built top to bottom like a classic Eastern Conference championship team.  They have the great goaltending (times two with both Thomas and Fernandez putting up Vezina trophy numbers), and despite their top offensive weapon being out for the season, the new Joe Thorton in Boston, Marc Savard, is stepping up and taking control of the offensive production of this team.  If Savard and Wheeler can continue their production into the postseason and can perform under pressure, then there is no reason why Boston should not be Eastern Conference champions of 2009.

3. Detroit Red Wings - A+.  Although they are 3 points behind the Sharks in the West with 3 more games played, they are the definition of a complete team.  Everyone from their first to their fourth line has goal scoring potential, is great defensively, and gives a strong effort night in and night out.  Which is amazing considering the average age of their team is pretty old.  What is even more amazing is that the top 5 youngest teams in the NHL are all in the West, yet Detroit is outworking them daily.  If Mike Babcock can learn to let go of the goaltender that saved them out of the first round of the playoffs last year and move on to Ty Conklin, then this team has the best shot at winning it all, even though it is extremely rare to see a team repeat a championship.

4. Washington Capitals - A-.  Quite possibly the scariest team in the league right now, with 79 points and tied with Boston with games played.  Alexander Ovechkin is the best player in hockey, and he is proving it this season.  Malkin has more points, but Ovechkin has the goals.  He's also bigger, just as fast, and plays more physical.  He is the ideal power forward for any team.  Semin is continuing to shine in the shadow of Ovechkin's spotlight, and Mike Green is the best offensive defenseman in the league today.  And why did Pittsburgh and Detroit make it to the finals last year?  Because their power plays were unstoppable.  Jose Theodore isn't exactly a household name in a discussion of goaltenders, but he is putting up the numbers needed to win.  Washington lacks a little depth and there is room for one more defensive-minded defenseman, but they are probably not very far behind Boston as favorites to win the East.

5. New Jersey Devils - B+.  Once the Devils realized that Kevin Weekes was not ready for the NHL and gave Scott Clemmensen the starting job, they have been lights out.  Although they don't go on huge winning streaks, they don't go on huge losing streaks either.  And they've beaten the right opponents, winning 1-0 and 6-5 against Boston and San Jose, respectively.  What's even more impressive is the fact that they've won a 1-0 game, and a 6-5 game.  They can win in any situation, which is always important in the playoffs.  With Martin Brodeur coming back, they're only going to improve.  The question, as always with the New Jersey Devils, is consistancy with their offense.  Zach Parise can only do so much by himself, and eventually the Devils will have to take a step away from their defensive approach to the game to get some more scoring opportunities for those second line guys.  If they can do that and have faith in their defensemen and goaltending, then the Devils might add more hardware to their already storied franchise.

6. Chicago Blackhawks - B.  They were in an offensive slump in December, and have been inconsistant since then.  But it looks like their youngsters are stepping it up, and their power play backed by Cam Barker and Brian Campbell is starting to heat up.  They have 76 points, tied with Calgary for third in the West, but they have 2 less games played than the Flames.  They're a younger, unproven version of the San Jose Sharks: a team that works hard for the pucks and uses their athleticism to fuel a fast-paced game plan.  Cristobol Huet is the biggest hole in their line-up, putting up a shutout one night then letting in 4 goals the next.  He needs to straighten things out once the playoffs come rolling in, or the Blackhawks are going to be one and done.

7. Calgary Flames - A-.  They haven't been making any headlines around the league, but they have always been a solid team and not much has changed since last year.  They have a solid lead over their division (8 points over second place Vancouver), they have good offensive depth (at least one 40+ point scorer in each of their top three lines), and Mikka Kiprusoff is healthy and putting up his normal numbers.  They are a strong, physical team, and the only way to beat them is to match their physicality.  There are a few teams in the West that are prepared to do that in the playoffs, so it will be a battle of willpower with whoever they face.

8.  Philedelphia Flyers - B+.  After a horrendous start to the season, the Flyers look like they're back to where they left off last year.  They were the upset specialists in the playoffs, and an improvement in their offensive play only looks to add to their ability to once again go deep and make a run at someone else's championship.  The only problem is, they were carried in a large part by Martin Biron, who is MIA this season.  He is starting to win games again, so we'll see how long he can keep that up going into the playoffs.

9. Montreal Canadiens - B-.  They are the 9th best team in the NHL in terms of points, but there have been a lot of things that went wrong since last year's #1 seed in the East to this year.  Management is upset with their star player for not trying hard enough, Carey Price has hit what seems to be a sophomore slump, and their players are being linked to drug usage and organized crime.  Montreal is a hockey city, so the only way to get the press off their backs is to win the Stanley Cup, which they were heavily favored to do this year coming into the season.  We'll see if the added pressure on their backs will improve or hinder their post season play, but the resurgence of Mathieu Schneider should at least help them get out of the first round.

10. Vancouver Canucks - B-.  It is a dead tie between Florida and Vancouver in the standings, but you have to like the Canucks' chances better than the Panthers simply because of Roberto Luongo.  Ever since returning from injury, he's been subpar in his play, but it's not like he's allowing easy goals.  Luongo has very little help in front of him, and lack of offensive depth is killing any chance this team has to make a serious run at a championship this year.  Unless Vancouver makes major trades (rumor has a break-up of the twins in the making) before the deadline, the Canucks are just going to be a stepping stone to another team getting out of the first round.

11. Florida Panthers - B-.  Florida has come out of nowhere the past two weeks and have strung together a series of wins (7-3-0 in their last 10) to put themselves in a playoff spot.  Granted, only 3 points seperates themselves from their current 6th place and the dreaded 9th place spot, but Thomas Vokoun has been a lights-out goaltender the past week and their first line has been red hot in scoring points, led by Stephen Weiss and the All-Star Jay Bouwmeester.  Any deep playoff run is heavily dependent on their goaltending, but if Vokoun can continue to play the way he is recently (unlikely), then the Panthers can be a dark horse pick for the Eastern Conference.

12. Buffalo Sabres - B+.  Buffalo is barely surviving in the playoff race, but they have great offensive depth and Ryan Miller is a solid goaltender.  Their superstar scorer Jason Pominville (at least they're paying him the money to be a top scorer) has been extremely cold lately, but he's still producing points by adding helpers.  Other players are finishing the job, which could be a blessing for Buffalo if Pominville ever decides to heat up again.  They aren't the most athletic team in the league, though, and in the playoffs the games often come down to who can outlast the other.

13. New York Rangers - B-.  It is a miracle that the Rangers are this far up the playoff tree.  Their offense has been one of the worst in the league, they're wondering where their Vezina finalist Henrik Lundqvist went, and they even had a game where they simply did not try.  Lundqvist hasn't been the goaltender everyone thought he would be this year, but can you really blame him when the puck is in his defensive zone 90% of each game?  Do the math and it isn't hard to see why he is letting in 3 goals a game.  They have the roster to work hard and be a decent offensive team, but they just haven't found a winning strategy with those players.  Coaching change anyone?

14. Columbus Blue Jackets - B+.  This team is my dark horse pick for the Western Conference.  If anyone is going to pull a huge upset run, it will be the Jackets.  They have a team history of being bottom-feeders, but this year they have finally found the answer: Steve Mason.  The rookie goaltender is this year's Carey Price: he's big, athletic, and plays goaltending down to the very core basics to make players earn their goals.  In terms of offense, they have the personnel to get scoring done: Rick Nash, Kristian Huselieus, Mike Commodore, etc.  People have been questioning their lack of a center, but with the way guys like Nash, Huselieus, and Peca handle the puck, they may not need one (although a better scorer at the center position would be welcomed).

15. Dallas Stars - A-.  The Stars are only ranked this low because of their (very) slow start to the season.  But after the dumping of Sean Avery, every aspect of their game has stepped up.  Mike Modano is having a revival season as a dish master, and Marty Turco is once again the Marty Turco fans have come to know and love (or hate if you are any other team in the Western Conference).  The big test to see how far the Stars have really come will be the next two weeks, where the Stars will face off with the San Jose Sharks twice.  They've been beaten all 3 times this season by the Sharks, but those games are ancient history by now.  The Stars are a different team, and this is the perfect time for them to measure themselves against one of the favorites to win the West.

16. Carolina Hurricanes - C.  They are currently holding the 9th spot in the Eastern Conference, and they're probably just waiting for the Rangers to shoot themselves in the foot to snag the 8th seed.  But the Pittsburgh Penguins are right behind them, and Carolina just isn't a playoff team yet.  Cam Ward was a one year wonder, and they lack depth in their lines.  Fortunately, they're still (or should be) in the rebuilding phase of their franchise, so they have a year or two to make some big deals to amp up their rosters and maybe put Cam Ward back in his back-up role.  The Hurricanes front office should look at this season as a step in the right direction, and not take it any further than that.  If they try to be buyers this trade deadline, they're not going to go anywhere for the next 3 years.

17. Pittsburgh Penguins - B+.  For a team that has Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they surprisingly lack a consistant offense.  Some would say that is thanks to the injuries of their top two blue-liners Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar, and others would say it is thanks to Marian Hossa publicly admitting the Red Wings are a far better team and moving to Detroit.  Pittsburgh hasn't found a way to put some wins together, but Marc-Andre Fleury is finally playing like the star goaltender he was last year.  They have the speed to push the pace against slower, bigger teams, but lack of a physical presence may hinder their chances to repeat as Eastern Conference Champions.  And they need someone to step up to take Hossa's old role.

18. Edmonton Oilers - C+.  After a painful first half of the season, the Oilers have seem to have found their temporary answer to goaltending: Dwayne Roloson.  His GAA and save percentage isn't exactly stellar, but he is a decent goaltender for a team still trying to rebuild.  They lack any sort of an offense, and when you have less goals for than goals against, chances are your playoff hopes are non-existant.

19. Anaheim Ducks - B-.  The Ducks are still in the playoff picture (then again, who isn't in the West?).  But age is clearly a factor with guys like Niedermayer and Selanne still playing on their first line.  Their power play is still hot, and Corey Perry is their bright spot for the future, but the future is not now.  Jonas Hiller has filled the void left by the sub-par play of Giguere this year, but nobody is afraid of the Ducks' physical, mean style of play, not even the Los Angeles Kings.  The Ducks might steal the 8th seed in the West, but then it is just a matter of who they will lose to in the first round.

20. Minnesota Wild - B+. The Wild have the lowest goals against total in the Western Conference, with 6 less goals scored against them than the San Jose Sharks.  Normally that would be an impressive number, but not when you 50 less goals for than the Sharks.  Their coaching staff has always been defensive minded, and having a top goaltender in Niklas Backstrom (who has been the center of trade rumors) doesn't hurt.  But they need to get some offense going, as they don't have a real offensive threat outside of Koivu and Bouchard on their first line.

21. Nashville Predators - B-. Despite recent success in making the playoffs the last few years, they lack a fan base.  Probably because they lack any sort of offense.  They play the same style as the Ducks, and try to play the mean physical game against opponents.  But nobody can be intimidated in this age of hockey, so it is just a matter of if any Predator can become a point producer.  They have the goaltending to contend for the next 5 years, but they lack a solid goal scorer, evidenced by their 142 goals scored this season, lowest in the NHL.

22. Los Angeles Kings - B.  The Kings are making a strong push for the playoffs this month, with most of their success coming on the road.  LA is currently transitioning from the rebuilding phase to becoming contenders, and this year is just the tip of the iceberg in what the Kings are actually capable of in a couple of years, when their star players like Kopitar and Brown begin to reach their prime.  The question for the Kings has been who is there goaltender, but this year the question has taken a turn for the positive: it is now a choice between Jonathan Quick, the surprise rookie, or Erik Ersberg, the man they wanted to put their franchise on.  Either way, the Kings might nab that 8th seed in the standings to make their first playoff appearance in a long time, but they're not about to upset San Jose or Detroit in the first round.

23. Phoenix Coyotes - B-. The Coyotes have finally found a goaltender for the future, but they don't have an offense outside of Shane Doan.  Their power play is well coached, but they also take a ton of penalties themselves.  The Coyotes need more depth added to their roster if they want to think about contending in the playoffs, but there are way too many holes to be filled with one year's worth of trades.

24. St. Louis Blues - B-. Same problem as the Coyotes.  The Blues have finally found a goaltender in Chris Mason, but Tkachuk is way too old to be on the first line.  They need more offensive help for McDonald and Boyes, maybe even a #1 guy.  Boyes leads the team with 50 points, which is a very low number for being the points leader.  Again, they aren't totally out of the playoff picture this year, but nobody truly is in the Western Conference.

25. Colorado Avalanche - B.  They currently sit last place in the Western Conference, but only 6 points seperate them from last to 8th place.  The return of Paul Statsny is going to be very welcomed to their struggling offense, but lack of a solid goaltender will hinder any chances to take that 8th spot from teams like Los Angeles or Minnesota.  The saddest part of the story, however, is how Joe Sakic is spending his last years in Colorado: on the IR.

26. Toronto Maple Leafs - C.  The only thing Toronto is first place in the league is goals against, with 217.  Surprising by a Ron Wilson coached team with Vesa Toskala as their starting goaltender, but once you take a look at their roster then it shouldn't be that much of a surprise.  They have no defensive help for the young goalie, and nobody to play the defensive, shot-blocking style of play that Wilson loves.  They have an offense, but it is inconsistant, scoring 6 goals in one game and 1 goal in the next.  They will need a big, physical defenseman to take charge of both their offense and their defense if they want to make any sort of run for the playoffs next year.

27. Ottowa Senators - C+.  The pizza line is becoming hot offensively, and the decent goaltending by Brian Elliot suggests there is hope for the Senators in the future.  They may win 70% of their remaining games because of their ability to score goals, but that may not be enough to take the 8th seed in the East.  There are too many other contenders for that last spot and the point differential is a bit too much.

28. Tampa Bay Lightning - C-. Karri Ramo is currently their goaltender of the future, which isn't too bad.  But they are clearly in the rebuilding phase of their franchise, which is unfortunate for guys like Lecavalier and St. Louis.  Steven Stamkos is starting to look like a #1 overall pick, and their power play has started to heat up with the acquisition of Cory Murphy.  But they aren't about to make the playoffs this year, but a few good moves in the offseason could put them right in the mix of things next year.

29. Atlanta Thrashers - C. They have found their goaltender in Lehtonen, and his injury is probably one of the biggest reasons why they aren't in the playoff picture.  Their offense is surprisingly good, with Rich Peverley, Bryan Little, and Todd White taking hold of the reins for the future.  The question is how long will Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk maintain their point producing ways before age becomes a factor.

30. New York Islanders - D.  Everything is wrong with this franchise.  They have a good rookie in Kyle Okposo, and there is nothing to be questioned about their work ethic.  They just have no offense, no defense, and no goaltending.  It is like watching an AHL team trying to play in the NHL.  Rick DiPietro either has to find an elixer that makes him immune to injury, or the Islanders have to find another goaltender and take a huge hit to their cap since they gave him that ludicrous 15 year deal.  Once they get their goaltending situation settled, then they can move on to adding in a couple of #1 defensemen and a couple of goal scorers to their roster.

Some final thoughts: although everyone is making a huge deal about the race between the Sharks, Bruins, Devils, and Red Wings at the top (the return of Martin Brodeur will be very interesting to watch), the team I'm going to be looking out for is the Columbus Blue Jackets.  They are a very scary team to watch.  Their offense is starting to break away from relying on Rick Nash, which gives him even more open space to do some amazing things.  Steve Mason, as I said before, isn't the type of goalie to make highlight reel saves night in and night out.  But he plays as if he's memorized a textbook on being a goalie: he's never out of position and he always looks to see where the puck is.  If they don't go far this year, there will be some major moves made to bolster their forwards and even adding one more guy on defense.  If that happens, and Steve Mason doesn't go down the road Carey Price went this year, then they could be right at the top in the West next year, which will be uncharted territory for their franchise.

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