Days 4 and 5 are making me look like the worst predictor in sports history.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia wins 6-3 (Pittsburgh leads series 2-1)
The Flyers took full advantage of home ice, and they carried all the positives of the game 2 overtime heart-breaker to a commanding defeat of the Penguins. All their top scorers came to play and Biron had timely saves to keep the momentum on the Flyers's side. The series took the nastiness level up a notch (amazingly), but both teams had strong penalty kills. The work ethic of the young guys on Philadelphia really carried them, highlighted by the shorthanded effort by Claude Giroux which led to the game winning goal. Strong forechecking by Daniel Carcillo was also noticeable, as he was back from a one game suspension he received after game 1. Most importantly, instead of being down 0-3, the Flyers are just down 1-2.
New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes: New Jersey wins 3-2 (New Jersey leads series 2-1)
New Jersey came in and accomplished what they needed: steal a game on the road against the Hurricanes. But it wasn't easy, as Carolina finally is playing playoff hockey. Carolina also came up with a new strategy: crash Brodeur. But in the end, it was an amazing effort from two of New Jersey's top guys that made the difference in overtime. Zach Parise skated around two defenders and made a difficult pass across the zone to Travis Zajac, who shot the puck hard off Ward, got his own rebound, and roofed it for the game winning goal. Although the past two games were hard fought and the series lead is only 2-1, the Devils now have a huge advantage over the Hurricanes heading forward.
Vancouver Canucks vs St. Louis Blues: Vancouver wins 3-2 (Vancouver leads series 3-0)
The Blues came out strong and are adjusting to the pace of playoff hockey. But if a team can't score 5 on 3, then they don't deserve to win. And that is the story of the St. Louis Blues. They had a long 5 on 3 in game 1, which failed and eventually led to Vancouver's first goal of the series and game. They had TWO, count them TWO 5 on 3 opportunities that were over a minute long in game 3, and could not beat Luongo. It's nice to see St. Louis score 2 strong even strength goals, but when you go 0-5 on the power play and give up 3 power play goals to the opposition, you won't win, and that is the case with St. Louis. Unless the Blues start scoring on special teams, look for Vancouver to sweep and have a long rest as they prepare for what will likely be a tough series against Chicago.
San Jose Sharks vs Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim wins 3-2 (Anaheim leads series 2-0)
Everyone knew this series would be hard fought, but nobody expected the 8th seed Ducks to win back to back road games in the Shark Tank. Similar story for the Sharks as with the Blues: their specialty teams play is horrendous at the moment and they are being beaten by a star goaltender. Fortunately for the Sharks, Anaheim's home record is the worst out of all the teams in the playoffs. But for the most part, that is probably meaningless when you are down 0-2 in a series. Make no mistake about it, the Ducks are in complete control. Luckily for the Sharks, the deficiencies in their game are very blatant and easy to point out. Unfortunately for the Sharks, it may be too late. Jonas Hiller will probably get all the attention if the Ducks do pull off the upset, but the key role players Todd Marchant and Mike Brown deserve just as much if not all the credit, as both of them have negated the 3rd best regular season power play with faceoff wins and strong forechecking, respectively.
So with the Capitals and Sharks both down 0-2 after losing both home games, it seems that everyone BUT my (and Keith Jones's of Versus) Stanley Cup finals predictions are playing good hockey. Everyone said Boston and Montreal would be a monster match-up that would be the most intense to watch regardless of the series length, but after the first 3 games I'd argue that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh has proven to be much more intense thus far. But what is really mind-boggling (besides San Jose in a 0-2 pit) is the suspension rulings by the NHL. Daniel Carcillo elbows a Penguin in game 1 and gets a 1 game suspension. Huge fight at the end of game 2 of St. Louis and Vancouver; no suspensions. Fights throughout the Philadelphia/Pittsburgh series despite Carcillo's absence; no suspensions. Mike Cammalleri cheap-shotting Martin Havlat; no suspensions. All kinds of rough stuff from Montreal in the first two games of two Boston blowouts; no suspensions. And here we are, with the league recently announcing that Milan Lucic will be suspended for a gloved punch on Maxim Lapierre. The league's exact definition of suspensions following the Carcillo face-off incident was if players decide to "send a message", or generally play dirty and rough, when the game was already decided in terms of the score and time remaining. Now, under that definition, Lucic does deserve to be suspended since he instigated a semi-brawl with the punch. But what about everyone else?
Sunday, April 19, 2009
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