NBA Finals Match-Up and Prediction

Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic:

Even though David Stern is probably somewhere in his bathroom crying, this finals match-up is actually very interesting. The Los Angeles Lakers were the hands-down favorites to win it all coming into the regular season and the playoffs, and they have once again made it to the NBA finals. The Orlando Magic are a year ahead of schedule in making it to the finals, as they were able to dethrone the defending champions and the regular season's best team without their All-Star point guard Jameer Nelson, who was a key factor in Orlando's 3rd place finish.
But anyone who has even remotely followed these playoffs knows that this isn't going to be a walk in the park for a Laker team that was blown out of the finals by the emotions of the Boston Celtics last year. Games 5 and 6 of the Western Conference finals were the only back to back games where the Lakers played consistent basketball since the Lakers destroyed a Utah Jazz team that struggled all year with consistency as they dealt with several injuries to their starters. On the other side, Stan Van Gundy claimed he could count, but the Orlando Magic sure treated game 6 like a game 7, taking the lead early in the first quarter and never letting Cleveland near it since. Dwight Howard had a career playoff-high 40 points along with 14 rebounds, and the defense held Lebron James to 25/7/7 following his triple-double in game 5.
But this series won't be close because both teams are playing great basketball going into the finals. On the contrary, it will be a match-up of inconsistency. The Lakers and Phil Jackson have a championship roster working with a championship system. Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, and Odom should all thrive on the triangle offense. Trevor Ariza is the high energy defensive star and Derek Fisher is the veteran leadership in the important point guard position backed up by a rising young star in Jordan Farmar. But throughout the conference semi-finals and finals, the Lakers have not played consistent basketball. One night, they will blow out a team playing spectacular defense and allowing Kobe the opportunity to nail the game-sealing shots early in the fourth quarter. The next night, they won't know how to guard anyone and not even a venemous snake can carry them out of a huge deficit. And let's not forget, if Denver actually knew how to inbound a ball, they could've been up 3-0 in the series and there would've have been no way for the Lakers to come out of that hole. Orlando has been playing the most consistent basketball out of the two teams, but the system itself is inconsistent. All season and all playoffs long, the Magic have lived and died at the 3-point line. But even though the Magic played a very convincing series, their wins overshadowed a lot of things. During the game 4 win, Turkoglu was 1 for 11 from the field. In game 3, Rashard Lewis had not hit a shot until the 4th quarter. Yes, they won both games, but it is the system that they play within that causes them to be so inconsistent (and not to mention Rafer Alston came up huge in both of those games).
On to the team match-ups. Dwight Howard was in foul trouble for 5 of the 6 games against Cleveland, against a very old front court of Big Z, Verajao, and Ben Wallace. He's now going to be matched-up against Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and maybe Lamar Odom. Sure, Bynum has been ineffective throughout these playoffs, but those 3 are a lot younger and more athletic at both ends of the floor than what the Cavaliers have to offer against Howard. The match-ups at small and power forward are very interesting. Rashard Lewis is a small power forward. He's basically the Eastern Conference's version of David West, except he can shoot from anywhere. Hedo Turkoglu is a bit too slow to play point guard, but the offense runs through him even though he's at the 3. Trevor Ariza shouldn't have a problem if he's guarding Turkoglu, nor should Kobe Bryant. But can Gasol defend the perimeter against Lewis? If he does, can the Lakers rely on Bynum to defend Howard one on one down low? If Kobe does end up on Turkoglu, one would think Ariza would guard Lewis and Gasol can help on Howard. That will leave Courtney Lee and Rafer Alston wide open for shots. They aren't the big names you think of when it comes to Orlando's offense, but at least Alston has proven he can come up big when Orlando's big three are struggling. Mikael Pietrus is the best bench player on both teams, but the Lakers have much more offensive balance than Orlando on their bench, so the Lakers win that battle.
I think the X-factor will be Marcin Gortat. You know, the big bald guy who occassionally plays for Orlando when Dwight Howard is taking a rest. Watching game 6, when Howard was on the bench to start the fourth, Orlando almost allowed Cleveland back in the game. The reason: they were so predictable. Everyone on Cavaliers knew that either Lewis or Turkoglu would take a jump shot. There was a point in time when Gortat, a 7 foot 25 year old, was down in the paint one-on-one with Delone West after Verajao switched onto Turkoglu after a screen was set by Orlando, and the Magic refused to give Gortat the ball for an easy two points in the paint. There is no way the Magic will win if they refuse to take advantages of mismatches just because they have better skill players on the floor. Howard will either dominate the big men of the Lakers, as Bynum is struggling and Gasol is soft, or he will be in foul trouble. If it is the latter, which is very possible based on how Howard performed against the less-skilled big men of Cleveland, Gortat will need to deliver. The Lakers are matched-up much better defensively than the Cavaliers against Turkoglo and Rashard Lewis, that they will be covered all day and will need an inside option like Gortat to open up shots for themselves while Howard is on the bench.
In the end, however, Kobe Bryant is the best player in the game. I'm sorry Lebron James and Cavaliers fans, but Bryant just isn't demanded to do as much as Lebron night in and night out, playoff or regular season games. His stats are very misleading for his skill set, and Bryant is not about to miss 35-40% of his free throws in a playoff game. Turkoglu and Lewis are not going to be given as much freedom on the three point line, and although there is no doubt they will make shots, I don't like an offensive system that relies on a shot that is only going to be made 35% of the time, especially in sports where defense wins championships. If the Magic are going to pull off the upset win, and yes, it will be considered an upset, Howard will need to dominate the paint and get Gasol off his game. And even then, Gasol has the ability to be a great outside jump-shooter, and if Lewis is matched-up against him defensively, Gasol will shoot over Lewis all day long. What will ultimately win the game will be bench scoring. Pietrus is not going to outscore the Lakers bench like he did the Cavaliers'. Luke Walton is underrated, Vujacic is struggling but has the ability to knock down the jump shot, and Lamar Odom must demand his space. The Los Angeles Lakers will win this series, it is just a question of whether they win in 5 or 7. Los Angeles wins in 7.