NHL 2010 Playoff Predictions

Before I start with the match-ups of each conference, let me just say this is the closest I've ever seen a Stanley Cup Playoffs in terms of talent level per team. Looking out at the West, the two "surprise" teams have been on the verge of making the playoffs for the past 2-3 years, and they've finally made it in, with lots of room to spare in terms of points. 7th place has 100 points with 8th at 95. It was just a couple of years ago when 100 points guaranteed you a division championship. Now, it barely makes it into the post-season. In the East, not a lot of powerhouses so you'd think a prediction would be pretty simple, but over half the pool is a wild card team: at first glance you'd think they have glaring weaknesses or just don't have it all together to make a Stanley Cup run, but then you think about winners of the past: Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, and all of a sudden one good hot streak can mean a championship for any of these teams. I've been pretty confident in my hockey knowledge in the past, but this year is as close to a guessing game as it is anything else. The fun begins Thursday night.

Western Conference:
(1) San Jose Sharks v (8) Colorado Avalanche: Sharks win in 6 games.
The Colorado Avalanche have played pretty well against the San Jose Sharks in the season series. Since the Olympic Break, the teams have played 2 games, both 1 goal differentials and one in overtime. San Jose got the charity point loss, but their win a couple of weeks earlier was more luck than anything as they got 3 goals from random deflections. Craig Anderson will be the difference in this series. He's been lights out for the Avs and if it weren't for Bryzgalov for the Coyotes, he'd be the biggest goal-tending story of the West. Still, outside of Adam Foote, the Avs defense is very young and more offensive minded, and the Sharks feed off the fast paced game. They love giving Nabokov the odd-man rushes and then quickly counter-attacking with their own. The Avs D-men tend to jump in a lot, and one bad bounce along the walls could be the difference in each game. San Jose's X-factor is Logan Couture. The rookie was called up during a 6 game losing streak the Sharks suffered after the Olympic break, and began an almost point-per-game pace to bring the Sharks from 0-5-1 to 8-1-1 to end the season. If he continues that, the third line of him, Jamie McGinn, and Manny Malholtra will dominate the series on the ice if not on the scoreboard.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks v (7) Nashville Predators: Blackhawks win in 5.
I think the Blackhawks are the most overrated team in the West this year. They are built like the Washington Capitals in the sense that they put all their money in offense and have no defense, but the Capitals score way more (49 more to be exact). Outside of the first shutdown D-pair of Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, Chicago can't stop anyone defensively. To give you a sense: Cristobal Huet, the goalie they put their hopes on since they didn't re-sign Khabibulin in the off-season, hasn't started a game in a month, and their new go-to-guy, Antti Niemi, has only 40 career games, all in the regular season. He's been very good for the Hawks in the month of April, but I just don't buy the Hawks going far this year. That said, the Predators are probably the weakest team in the West, with very inconsistent goal-tending and not a lot of firepower to make up for it. They excel in stacking the neutral zone and slowing down the rush, but the Hawks offense is too talented for a simple defensive scheme to stop in a 7 game series.

(3) Vancouver Canucks v (6) Los Angeles Kings: Vancouver wins in 7.
This should be the best series of the conference quarterfinals in the West. Los Angeles has been a team I've been looking at to make the playoffs for about 4 years now. The Canucks are pretty much the same team they've been all year, but Henrik Sedin decided to win the Art Ross (most regular season points). The Canucks won the season series 3-1, but their loss was the last match-up in which the Kings thrashed them 8-3 (it was never close, the Kings led 5-0 at one point). On the flip side of things, the Canucks finished the season hot while the Kings' goaltender has struggled in the past 5 games. It's the highest scoring team in the West backed up by the best goaltender in the West, against a very talented, younger, and more more defensively skilled group. I expect every game to be close and this series to go all the way to the final game, where the Canucks will get the extra edge from home ice advantage.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes v (5) Detroit Red Wings: Detroit wins in 5.
The real question is how can you NOT pick the Red Wings? Phoenix has a great goaltender in Bryzgalov, and if they make a run like they did this year in the regular season he'll be the reason why. Dave Tippet is coach of the year and his system has brought out the best in a group of good, but not great hockey players. Outside of their goaltender, the Coyotes are like the Predators, but the coach and player relationship made the difference for the Yotes. But the Red Wings have gone to the Stanley Cup finals in the past 2 years, Jimmy Howard is probably Rookie of the Year (although if it goes to anyone else it wouldn't be a surprise), and they pretty much have the same offensive and defensive line-up. The Coyotes are a nice story and I hope for the sake of the franchise they sell out their home games, something they haven't been able to do probably for the past 5 seasons. Detroit is the second scariest team in the West under Vancouver, however, and they come in the hottest of them all: 8-1-1 in their last 10.


Eastern Conference:
(1) Washington Capitals v (8) Montreal Canadiens: Washington wins in 4.
Washington is the highest scoring team in the NHL by over half a goal per game in comparison to the second place team. Jose Theodore has been good enough, which is not to say brilliant. The Canadiens have the offense to bring out the flaws in Washington defense, as they were the busiest team in the off-season and pretty much built their top 2 scoring lines from scratch. But despite securing the conference before anyone else even made it to the playoffs in the East, the Capitals went all out down the stretch and obliterated everybody. Unless the Capitals suddenly get tired or pull off one of the biggest choke jobs in NHL history, there's no reason why Montreal should win a single game. The Capitals simply have to do what they've done since they've acquired Ovechkin: outscore their mistakes.

(2) New Jersey Devils v (7) Philadelphia Flyers: Devils win in 5.
It's really fortunate that the New York Rangers were the ones eliminated in the final game of the regular season. They had a much better team all around. Coming into the season, I thought the Flyers were the epitome of a playoff team. 2 good scoring lines, the nastiest set of checkers in the NHL, one of the best shutdown defensive pairs in the league, and a motivated superstar goalie in Ray Emery. Well, Chris Pronger has taken a lot of heat, the Flyers just got out of a losing streak to beat the Rangers twice in a row , they haven't been scoring a lot, and Ray Emery was lost for the season a while ago. A slumping offense and a rotation of back-up goalies down the stretch means the Flyers have a lot of coin-flipping to do in the next 3 days. I say Brian Boucher gets the nod as the starter and he's been solid when called upon in the past. However, Kovalchuk, after a lot of criticism, has finally found his game in New Jersey, and they've been scoring a whole lot since. The Flyers take too many penalties with their style of play, and the moment the Devils get out of their power play drought, they will run all over the Flyers.

(3) Buffalo Sabres v (6) Boston Bruins: Boston wins in 7.
Tough game to call, since both teams are built the same way. Solid offensive teams but no standouts, and they are built for the defensive grinding game the Eastern Conference playoffs are known to have. It will be interesting to see who gets the nod in goal for Boston, as Tuuka Rask has been the best goaltender in the last half of the season but Tim Thomas is Tim Thomas. Ryan Miller will be the one to carry the Sabres out of the first round if they make it that far, but something tells me Boston has the slight edge. It's hard not to choose a team who can score 3 short-handed goals in the same penalty kill 46 seconds apart. If Buffalo is going to run up the score, it will be with Tim Connolly. He's been mired with injuries the past few seasons but he's the only standout offensive talent the team has. Boston's offense is pretty obvious: Marc Savard will lead the way or fail trying.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins v (5) Ottawa Senators: Pittsburgh wins in 5.
Not a whole lot of drama in the first round of the East. Ottawa has been the feel good story of the East, with huge trades in the off-season landing them in the 5 seed. Brian Elliot did what Steve Mason of the Columbus Blue Jackets couldn't: prove his rookie season wasn't a fluke. Milan Michalek and Alex Kovalev were the big stories offensively, after they traded away Dany Heatley to the Sharks. Michalek is a solid 2 way player with great speed that can be exploited, but he's not a solid first line guy and is wasted on a second line: he's in some random void in between. Alex Kovalev has been ice cold since the Olympic break during which the Senators went into a major slump, but Senators fans will look at the bright side: he's injured and out for the rest of the season anyways. Their checking line that helped them into the Stanley Cup finals 3 years ago has pretty much stayed the same, and that could be a big difference. But Pittsburgh has the same Stanley Cup winning roster, they play within their system, and Evgeni Malkin is probably the most underrated player in the game today. Marc-Andre Fleury has been great at times and horrible at others, but he's been like that his entire career and somehow manages to string together brilliant games when the post-season comes around, and there's no reason not to expect the same this year.

Stanley Cup Finals: San Jose Sharks v New Jersey Devils: Sharks in 7

If I weren't a Sharks fan, it would be the Nucks in the Cup finals. The top 3 teams, despite the seedings, are pretty clear, with Vancouver, Detroit, and San Jose leading the way. San Jose is much like Chicago in the sense that they outscore their flaws but they have much better goal-tending in Nabokov, despite all the heat he's taken the past 2 years. If San Jose maintains their defensive composure like they've had the past 10 games, they should go far. Still, I would be very surprised if a Stanley Cup run by the Sharks didn't have to go through Detroit, then Vancouver. I would consider it a blessing if they had to face any other team past the first round. As for the East, I'm not sure who my Cup favorite is. A casual fan will jump immediately on the Capitals bandwagon, and considering they probably would have won the Cup if it weren't for the Penguins last year, it's probably a safe bet to do so. I still like the Devils in the sense that they systematically a better playoff team, and honestly if Philadelphia, Ottawa, Montreal, or Boston get hot at the right moment, they will be upsetting a lot of teams. Buffalo and Ottawa are my weak links in the East, which may surprise some of you American fans with Ryan Miller netminding the #3 seed. If Alexander Semin steps up his playoff game, all this speculation will be pointless, however. He's the overshadowed pure scorer on the Capitals behind Ovechkin, and like Malkin, he isn't on the first line. He hasn't lacked scoring in the playoffs, but his defensive game has been horrible and his critics often point out he's too soft. Either he mans up this year or the Capitals may have another early exit when they face Pittsburgh in the second round.